Rain Is On The Way, But Will It Put A Dent In The Drought?
SPEAKERS
Jim du Bois, Kenny Blumenfeld
Jim du Bois 00:00
Can we put a dent in this drought? This is Way Over Our Heads. It's a weather and climate podcast. I'm Jim du Bois. Kenny Blumenfeld is a climatologist. Kenny, how was your Fourth of July?
Kenny Blumenfeld 00:11
It was good. You know it was hot as a dog.
Jim du Bois 00:14
True.
Kenny Blumenfeld 00:15
And how was yours?
Jim du Bois 00:17
It was fabulous. The only fireworks we saw, I guess you would say we're virtual. We heard plenty of fireworks last night actually going into the wee hours of this morning. This is Monday, July 5. But hey, I guess that's what the Fourth of July is all about. And hopefully, hopefully no one has Post Traumatic Stress Disorder. But...
Kenny Blumenfeld 00:39
Right, yeah, that would be pretty bad. It's tough on animals, too.
Jim du Bois 00:42
Yeah, no kidding. It is.
Kenny Blumenfeld 00:43
I did see out and about in St. Paul yesterday some fireworks that had maybe drifted out... off course, started the grass on the side of the highway on fire off of 94, which I had not seen that in a while. But that's what happens. You get dry grass, there were firefighters there. It was interesting. It looked pretty well contained. And that might have even been, and for all I know, that was from a municipal fireworks show. But I...it's so dry that it doesn't take much right now, doesn't take much.
Jim du Bois 01:19
That is true.
Kenny Blumenfeld 01:21
Yeah. So we promised our listeners, all 11 of them, that we would do a...that we would do a special episode if the potential for heavy rain showed its head. And because I'm going to be gone for about half of the coming week and into the weekend figured hey, there is a potential for some rains, some beneficial rains across Minnesota. We've got actually a couple different chances. So, we should talk about it.
Jim du Bois 01:48
Okay, well, Kenny, round one will be tomorrow, fingers crossed.
Kenny Blumenfeld 01:56
Yeah, I think that, you know, this is a little bit better than anything we've had. We haven't dealt with very much this summer. But if you think of the precipitation that we have had, it's been generally pretty isolated. I think there was that one, there was that, what Sunday, couple weeks ago in June, where everyone got a pretty good dose of heavy rains and thunderstorms, got a half-inch to an inch over at least the eastern part of Minnesota. But we really have lacked the kind of weather systems that you know, hit broad areas of the state with meaningful precipitation. For the most part, everything we've had this summer has been forced into existence by heat and by humidity, and not necessarily by any kind of organization in the atmosphere. And so, you're left with sort of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. What we have on Tuesday, is, you know, pretty good area of lift. And of course, when we talk about lift, what we really mean is some mechanism that enables the atmosphere to rise, and of course, rising motions in the atmosphere are what lead to clouds and precipitation. And when you have sustained lift, then you can generate fairly heavy and/or widespread precipitation. So tonight, Monday night, thunderstorms are going to break out in parts of the Dakotas. And on Tuesday morning, they're going to be working their way into Minnesota. And it looks like, what it really looks like is we've got kind of a north and a south branch of this precipitation. I don't know exactly where they're going to part. But the northern branch is going to be mostly associated with whatever is leftover of those overnight thunderstorms. It actually looks like they're going to kind of congeal ,not necessarily into anything severe or anything super dangerous, just into a big blob of thundery rain that's going to work its way from west to east across mostly, mostly the northern two thirds or so of Minnesota on Tuesday morning and into Tuesday afternoon. And that batch of heavy rain, you know, moderate to heavy rain, could be prolonged enough that some areas get one to two inches. I would say you know, from that precipitation, I would expect at least a half an inch or so, in, you know, a good swath representing 30 or 40% of Minnesota, and maybe within that, half of that area getting over an inch. It looks like a good, a good soaking rain. Probably won't be you know, raining cats and dogs and just pouring down the entire time. But there'll be some, you know, some heavier bursts in there, but it's really going to be a few hours in the morning of, or in the morning or afternoon of kind of moderate to heavy precipitation, maybe some rumbles of thunder. That's the first thing, and then while that's happening to the southern part of Minnesota, it looks like it's gonna be just south of the Twin Cities but the southern part of Minnesota is going to bake pretty good. And some deep humidity is going to move in. So, basically think of kind of Redwood Falls to Red Wing, somewhere in that area. Now I could be off, if I'm off by 50 miles here, then and it shifts a little bit north, the Twin Cities certainly could be in play, it could also shift a little bit south. But it looks like somewhere between I-90 and the Twin Cities, round two is going to emerge in the afternoon. And this is going to be in response to the strong heating. And of course, with all of that lift that's already present in the atmosphere, some of that strong heating is also going to kind of bolster the other kind of cooler side of the warm front. And so, we might see intensification of some of that precipitation in the northern, that northern band, but then also really strong thunderstorms, possibly even severe thunderstorms in the southern band, and there could be actually training of thunderstorms, you remember that term.
Jim du Bois 05:57
Oh yes.
Kenny Blumenfeld 05:59
Yeah, it's not that we're teaching thunderstorms how to do anything, it's not that kind of training, it's actually just the observation that meteorologists made some time ago that, that some thunderstorms kind of pass over the same location as the one before just like passing railway cars on a train would pass by the same location. And so, they call it training or cell training. It's one of the tip offs that you could have, you know, even some minor, in this case, flash flooding. I don't see a big flooding event coming out of this, Jim. But I do think that whoever gets under that afternoon band of thunderstorms has a chance of getting some, kind of hitting the jackpot getting, you know, maybe two or three inches of rain. Again, I'd say another, another maybe 20 to 30% of the state just from the afternoon is going to pick up a half an inch of rain or more. And within that area, maybe half of, half of that area also picks up an inch. So when it's all said and done, by the time we get through Tuesday, a good half of the state will have picked up at least a half an inch of rain, and maybe somewhere around a quarter to a third of the state will have picked up over an inch. And within that, those areas that get over an inch, there could be places that get two, three, maybe even four inches of rain. Again, I don't think we're looking at a major flooding event here on Tuesday. But, you know, these are going to be some delicious rains that you're gonna see. People are going to be very excited that it's, that it's raining. And you know, it's not going to hit everyone equally hard. So, if you're kind of sitting it out, you know, at least be happy for the neighbors or towns down the road that are getting it because we really need every drop right now.
Jim du Bois 07:47
Kenny, you mentioned there may be some severe thunderstorms on Tuesday. But this is not shaping up to be a major severe weather outbreak, is it?
Kenny Blumenfeld 07:55
Not really. I mean, the one thing that it does have going for it tomorrow is there's a very strong boundary. I think you'll feel a big difference. If you were to start a drive, say north to south, through the Twin Cities, maybe in the afternoon, northern Twin Cities areas, you know, up in northern Anoka County maybe in the 60s, kind of cool, little bit moist, but cool. All that rain cooled air from the morning. And then on the southern end of the Twin Cities and especially a little farther south down towards Northfield and Owatonna, I think, you know, temperatures are easily going to sail into the mid and upper 80s. And it's going to be muggy. And along that boundary, you know, the Storm Prediction Center has outlooked basically a marginal risk for severe weather, that's the lowest severe weather risk that they have. But it's, it's more than nothing. So, you know, a few storms producing some hail or some gusty winds, nothing really out of hand. I don't see a major event. There could be some intense precipitation with those storms, especially where they repeat visit places. And so, the Weather Prediction Center, which used to be the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, they're kind of like a Storm Prediction Center and that they're, they're this national center within NOAA that has kind of oversight for the entire country. They generally do the large area precipitation forecasts, and they actually have a risk, a slight risk for excessive rainfall in about the southern, southern half or so of Minnesota tomorrow. So, I don't think there's going to be a major event except that when you look at what's happened this year so far where we've had almost nothing of consequence in terms of precipitation events, this is going to be one of the, you know, has the potential anyway to be one of the better precipitation events we've had since spring began.So. it's kind of exciting.
Jim du Bois 09:52
So we see Wednesday and Thursday being very, very pleasant days, probably high temperatures below normal for this time of the year. But then we have another event coming up on Friday.
Kenny Blumenfeld 10:04
Yeah, you're right about Wednesday and Thursday look spectacular. The Friday one is going to be iffy. We won't know until it gets a little bit closer in time, where it's actually going to hit. The last couple days of numerical forecast models have been quite bullish or quite suggestive that, that somewhere in Minnesota is going to be a major hit. And this would be because you kind of take all of Tuesday's lift and moisture and multiply it by two or three, it's just a longer event with more moving parts more moisture, more lift, got more going for it. And so actually, we you know, for all we know, we could be talking about something that ends up happening in Iowa, but people listening should kind of take note that over the weekend, especially on Friday, we are seeing the potential for some very heavy precipitation. Again, don't know where it would be. And of course, the heaviest precipitation would be in a fairly narrow axis. But, you know, a lot of the models have been showing 2, 3, 4 inches of rainfall over an area that's about a third the size of Minnesota, so, and then within that, little streaks and swaths that are even heavier. I don't know where it's going to be, it's a little bit, well, do we want it to hit Minnesota on the nose, because that means we're probably going to have some erosion of those dry top soils and some flooding if that does occur. Or is it going to pass off maybe to the south, and we get grazed by it or barely, or barely notice it at all. But I do think there's a pretty good chance that on Friday, there will be meaningful and heavy precipitation somewhere in or very close to Minnesota and it's worth, it's worth paying attention. Not a really strong severe weather signal with that system, either even though it's got a little more going for it. Just because wherever it's going to be raining the most and having the most thunderstorms, it's probably going to be pretty cool from all of that activity, and you're not going to be able to build up that instability. Farther south, where I don't think Minnesota is in play for this at all, it will be just warm and humid. And they'll have chances for some severe weather. You know, it looks like that could be Iowa or even Missouri. But yeah, just potential for major precipitation events. So I thought, you know, gosh, we haven't had a contender that looked like this yet this summer. I mean, even just the notion, Jim, that we could see, not one but two widespread soaking rains in Minnesota over the next several days. It's almost like we're in a different year all of a sudden, but of course it is 2021. And as we are speaking right now, the temperatures have soared into the mid and upper 90s on Monday afternoon. So yeah, I think you know, if we do get these rains, that would be a pretty big deal.
Jim du Bois 13:00
Well, the rains will be welcome relief, for sure. But we can't get overly excited because this is not going to break the drought, even the best case scenarios, correct?
Kenny Blumenfeld 13:11
Yeah, I mean, I think we're kind of past the point. That's a really good point, Jim. We're sort of past that point where we could maybe bank on one, one good soaking rain kind of getting us out of this thing. I think that what we could hope for is that if we get some solid, heavy rains, you know, that really soak us, or some part of the area really gets soaked. Do I think those areas will at least be able to hold off, hold the drought back a bit while that moisture works through the system? I don't know exactly how long that would be. But you know, if you're in a place that gets four or five inches of rain, obviously your drought categories are not going to be worsening that week. And it might, might be able to put a little bit of a dent in the drought and in the drought's intensity and its expansiveness. But we, in order to come out of the drought, Jim, I think, I think we need, you know, they don't all have to be that big. They don't have to be major events. But we need regular precipitation, you know, so if we get this heavy one on, if we get heavy precipitation on Tuesday, and maybe, maybe even it delivers as advertised. And then the end of the week system indeed hits Minnesota, I think that could set us up for a better outcome if we then get kind of regularly scheduled precipitation. But I'm still not seeing anything on the charts that suggests the patterns are about to switch wholesale. In fact, if I look out, the next week and a half or so look pretty cool and kind of rainy on most of the models as we, as these systems work through. But then, everything from kind of mid-July onwards looks like we're just back into the hot, hot weather. So, so my concern is not so much if this precipitation happens, and we come out of the drought or can sort of reverse it or at least stall it. My bigger concern is if we don't get it, and we, then we go back into the soup, I mean, and into the steam bath or into the dry heat or whatever it is, without getting that beneficial precipitation. And you know, I think then things are going to really turn. Because if July is hot and dry at a time when you're already in a major precipitation deficit, that's only going to hurt things.
Jim du Bois 15:31
Well fingers crossed on rain this week. And, boy, we'll just really hope that it brings some relief to those drought stricken areas. But Kenny, we do have, I guess, the waning hours now of what has been a long weekend for many of us. So enjoy, I guess the the final hours of the Fourth of July weekend. And we'll look forward to chatting with you, Kenny, again soon.
Kenny Blumenfeld 15:57
Yeah, definitely. You enjoy the remainder of the holiday weekend, Jim. And we'll talk to you kind of when I get back in town, assuming there's something to talk about which there always is because it's a weather and climate podcasts, and there's always weather.
Jim du Bois 16:12
This is Way Over Our Heads, and we'll catch you next time.