Minnesota's First Winter Storm of the Season Is On Its Way

Speakers: Jim du Bois, Kenny Blumenfeld

Jim du Bois  00:00

And so, it begins. This is Way Over Our Heads. It's a weather and climate podcast. I'm Jim du Bois. Kenny Blumenfeld's a climatologist. Kenny, how you doing today? You know, it's going to be our first experience with snow since what? April of this year? Maybe March?

Kenny Blumenfeld  00:17

Yeah, it's been a long time. You caught me off guard. As you were introducing it, I was thinking how many times we probably use it. So it begins. Is it beginning? But it's been a while. Yeah, I can tell you that the last measurable snow, oh boy, you're gonna have to give me a second here. But the, we're doing well over here in the State Climatology Office. It's, you know, we're still kind of keeping an eye on that drought because it's easy to forget about it when you get into fall. You know, you get into fall, and everything seems nice and moist, and this is really, it's a matter of perception that I'm trying to understand still. If we go back to January 2020, on average, the state is still over 10 inches short of normal precipitation. Now, of course, there are some areas that have an even stronger deficit than that, and some that have less of one. But then again, if you go back to January of 2013, well, then it's a different story, then we're still in a large precipitation surplus on the order of a foot and a half or so. So, I think that the the bottom line is climate’s really interesting, and it operates on multiple scales. And maybe one of the reasons that we're not feeling the drought as severely right now is because we did get some precipitation, and it's fall, and you're able to hold on to your moisture a little better in the fall. And maybe some of it has to do with the fact that for several years before this drought, we were running such enormous precipitation surpluses that there's there may be some extra water still around from that, that, you know, is preventing things from sliding further. But, you know, on the drought front anyway, you don't expect big changes once you get into November through about March because it's our dry season. And I mean, really dry season. You know, over the next five months, it's normal to get a total of 10 inches of precipitation, or maybe even a little less in parts of Minnesota. And, you know, if you take five months of the warm season, May through September, for example, and only get 10 inches, that's a disaster. So, we can kind of probably hold it steady a little bit. But how are you, Jim?

Jim du Bois  00:26

Yes. Yeah.

Jim du Bois  02:49

I'm doing well, Kenny, I have to tell you, I'm kind of excited to see a little taste of snow here. We've had a glorious fall. I mean, I, I have to say, Kenny, and I don't know what you're hearing over through the auspices of the DNR, but I know there was a lot of talk about due to the drought, we might not have such a vibrant display of fall colors this year. But I think it's one of the better fall color displays I can recall seeing in many years.

Kenny Blumenfeld  03:18

Okay, well, so you like the prolonged nature of it?

Jim du Bois  03:21

Yes, I do.

Kenny Blumenfeld  03:23

You know, we've had fall colors on the landscape now for five weeks. The one thing that we kind of missed, and I think that that's what, that's what folks were referring to, we kind of missed that peak where that sort of harmonized peak where the majority of trees in an area are changing at the same time. I was down by the river, crossing the river by bicycle and then by car and just noticing Minnesota and St. Croix rivers both had beginning in, you know, late September and early October, a real patchwork of, you know, where different trees that seemed to have the same exposures were in terms of their color advancement. And that has persisted. So, you know, you'll have one, one or two trees in a stand or in a bunch that are starting to turn and getting to you know, if it's a maple maybe they're showing their reds, and then other ones that are still green. And so, we never had a big coordinated peak but we have had is several weeks now of decent colors. So, I'm glad you're enjoying it.

 Jim du Bois  04:31

Absolutely. Well Kenny, what is in store for us? I guess it starts as rain at least here in the Twin Cities. And this is a multi-day event, correct?

Kenny Blumenfeld  04:40

Yeah, I gotta say I'm not too excited about the snow prospects in the Twin Cities area.

Jim du Bois  04:46

Okay.

Kenny Blumenfeld  04:47

I think it will get some. How much if any of it sticks with the whole first wave through Friday is up in the air. I'm not even positive that we'll get accumulations in the Twin Cities. Now in far northern Minnesota, north of Highway 2, it's a different ballgame. They're going to get heavy snow, and they're going to get wind-driven snow. And this would actually begin, so what is it Wednesday that we're talking? So, this would, some of this would begin today, tonight, and then especially on Thursday. It's kind of a three, three wave system. So, the first wave is this rain that's going to move through Wednesday afternoon and evening, over most of Minnesota. In parts of far northern Minnesota, it's going to turn to snow relatively quickly. And this would be north of the Duluth area, but you know, in the Arrowhead north of Highway 2, and then as this, that low pressure system moves out over towards the Great Lakes, it's actually going to intensify and kind of pivot a little bit. And that's going to allow the precipitation on the north end, especially to intensify while colder air is being drawn in. So, then another kind of wave of heavy snow with strong winds is going to overtake you know, again, maybe the northern quarter of Minnesota. So, I'm not sure how many listeners will be affected by it. But you know, I know a lot of people are out, we'll be out, you know, with Veterans Day, tomorrow, a lot of folks that have the day off or going to visit people or take a little vacation, there could be some problems traveling in northwestern and northern Minnesota in some of those wind-prone areas. It'll be close to, I would say by, you know, by the time we get into mid-Thursday, it'll be close to blizzard conditions in the open country of parts in northwestern Minnesota with strong winds 35, 40 miles an hour and some heavy snow. But for the rest of us, it won't be until that system starts to kind of weaken. And that allows the precipitation area to expand and lunge southeastward that here in the Twin Cities, we would start seeing anything other than flurries where we might actually see some, you know, snow that's mixed with rain and maybe heavy enough to restrict the visibilities down to a mile or so. This would be, you know, later Thursday into Friday. I'm not seeing any real strong signs of large accumulations in the Twin Cities with relatively warm ground still, Jim. You know, we could see, I wouldn't rule it out, getting an inch or two is certainly possible. But I also wouldn't be surprised if we didn't get much, if any accumulations in the Twin Cities, especially in the urban core on the streets. You know, once you get outside of the beltway that 494/694 corridor, the chances of accumulation on any surface really go up outside of that urban heat island. We've been kind of watching a second wave that would move through later in the weekend, Saturday evening into Sunday. But that just doesn't have much oomph. It had at times looked like it could also be good for several inches of snow. But at least in the current model iterations, I'd say keep an eye on it. It'll start out colder, so it'll have more cold air to work with. But even that system, you know, in the latest models looks like it may be as good for an inch or two in parts of Minnesota at best. So, there's a lot of uncertainty with that second system. First system, I'm pretty sure northern Minnesota sees heavy snow. Twin Cities sees very little areas in between get kind of a gradient where, you know, out in central Minnesota, between St. Cloud and Park Rapids, you get one to three inches of snow, something like that. But then north of that area, north of Highway 2, much heavier snow and hugging the international border. I wouldn't be surprised if some areas got, you know, 8 9, 10 inches up there. So big snowstorm but you know, this time of year, what's this gonna be? November, so November 11 when it's all kind of getting down to business? You know, how many much more significant weather events we've seen on November 11?

Jim du Bois  08:59

Oh, yes, it's the 81st anniversary of such an event, isn't it?

Kenny Blumenfeld  09:03

Yeah. So, we had the Armistice Day storm back in 1940. There was a huge storm in 1911. It really clipped southern Minnesota and Wisconsin but produced tornadoes, up to 70-to-80-degree temperature drop, along with 70 to 80 mile an hour winds. So, an all out blizzard then swept basically from Iowa and southern Wisconsin, right through Missouri and into the Ohio Valley, and this was a massive storm. That was in 1911. In 1998, there was a gigantic low-pressure system that at the time broke the low-pressure record for Minnesota and produced catastrophic winds in Wisconsin where, you know, I think 10 deaths from that. So, it's gonna be a pretty powerful storm but as November 10th, 11th, 12th storms ago, this one is small potatoes, Jim. I mean, you know, 10 inches of snow and 40 mile an hour winds which is definitely in the cards in parts in far northwestern Minnesota, that's pretty substantial, but it's nothing compared to what we've seen in other years. So, you know, just be smart. If you're out on the roads, be careful. If you're traveling in outstate, Minnesota, north of Highway 2, you should definitely have a winter survival kit, know where you are, and let people know where you're going. But, you know, for most of the rest of us, just a kind of fall, fall weather system. Not a huge deal.

Jim du Bois  10:27

Well, we will definitely enjoy it. And as you said, folks, stay safe. Make sure you break out the shovel just in case. And Kenny, great talking to you. It's been a while.

Kenny Blumenfeld  10:39

It has been a while. It's been, yeah, it's been about, I don't know, a few weeks anyway. and yeah,

Jim du Bois  10:44

Yup, exactly. Well, we'll will be back on a more regular track here, Kenny.

Kenny Blumenfeld  10:48

Yeah. I mean, you know what, though, we got to have something to talk about. Right?

Jim du Bois  10:51

Well, true, very true.

Kenny Blumenfeld  10:55

So...

Jim du Bois  10:56

 Well hopefully the weather will give us plenty of things to talk about over the next few weeks.

Kenny Blumenfeld  11:01

I mean, that's, you know, as someone who works in this field, I gotta say we like it when it's active. You know, we don't want anyone to be negatively affected by the weather. But you know, it's a little more interesting when there's something to talk about.

Jim du Bois  11:15

Well, Kenny, good as always to talk with you and we'll check in with you soon.

Kenny Blumenfeld  11:19

All right, next time. Jim. Thanks a lot. Have a great rest of your week.

Jim du Bois  11:23

This is Way Over Our Heads. It's a weather and climate podcast. I'm Jim du Bois. Kenny Blumenfeld's a climatologist. We'll will catch you next time.